AI prediction · locked November 6, 2026 4:15 pm
Model pick 1–0
Result after 90 minutes: 0–2. The model tipped 1–0 and scored 0 points.
Most likely scores
Why
The model expects Angers SCO to score 1.37 goals: league home average 1.70 × Angers SCO home attack 0.79 × Nice away defence 1.01.
It expects Nice to score 1.26 goals: league away average 1.33 × Nice away attack 0.81 × Angers SCO home defence 1.18.
Based on 5 home games for Angers SCO, 4 away games for Nice and 81 finished matches in the competition.
Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).
The outcome is close to a toss-up according to the model – treat the pick with extra caution.
Form & stats this competition season
| Angers SCO | Nice | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | #16 · 8 pts | #6 · 17 pts |
| Last 5 (newest first) | LLDLL | WWWLW |
| Home W-D-L (goals) | 1-1-4 (5:11) | 3-2-0 (10:5) |
| Away W-D-L (goals) | 1-1-2 (4:8) | 2-0-3 (5:7) |
| Goals per game at home (for/against) | 0.83 / 1.83 | 2.00 / 1.00 |
| Goals per game away (for/against) | 1.00 / 2.00 | 1.00 / 1.40 |
| xG | n/a | n/a |
xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.63 home and 1.32 away goals per match (90 finished matches).
Model assumptions & limitations
Assumptions
- Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
- Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
- Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
- Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
- Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
- The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.
Limitations
- No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
- No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
- Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
- Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
- Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.