AI prediction · locked November 4, 2026 7:30 pm
Model pick 2–1
Result after 90 minutes: 3–1. The model tipped 2–1 and scored 1 point.
Most likely scores
Why
The model expects HSV to score 2.01 goals: league home average 2.12 × HSV home attack 0.80 × M'gladbach away defence 1.18.
It expects M'gladbach to score 1.41 goals: league away average 1.38 × M'gladbach away attack 0.88 × HSV home defence 1.17.
Based on 3 home games for HSV, 4 away games for M'gladbach and 72 finished matches in the competition.
Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).
Most likely outcome: HSV (51%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.
Form & stats this competition season
| HSV | M'gladbach | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | #11 · 12 pts | #18 · 4 pts |
| Last 5 (newest first) | WLLWW | LDWLL |
| Home W-D-L (goals) | 3-0-1 (6:7) | 0-1-3 (7:10) |
| Away W-D-L (goals) | 1-0-4 (4:13) | 1-0-4 (5:15) |
| Goals per game at home (for/against) | 1.50 / 1.75 | 1.75 / 2.50 |
| Goals per game away (for/against) | 0.80 / 2.60 | 1.00 / 3.00 |
| xG | n/a | n/a |
xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 2.12 home and 1.36 away goals per match (81 finished matches).
Model assumptions & limitations
Assumptions
- Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
- Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
- Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
- Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
- Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
- The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.
Limitations
- No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
- No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
- Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
- Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
- Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.