AI prediction · locked November 6, 2026 11:30 am
Model pick 1–2
Result after 90 minutes: 1–1. The model tipped 1–2 and scored 0 points.
Most likely scores
Why
The model expects Napoli to score 1.23 goals: league home average 1.62 × Napoli home attack 1.10 × Lazio away defence 0.69.
It expects Lazio to score 1.99 goals: league away average 1.56 × Lazio away attack 1.40 × Napoli home defence 0.91.
Based on 4 home games for Napoli, 5 away games for Lazio and 100 finished matches in the competition.
Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).
Most likely outcome: Lazio (55%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.
Form & stats this competition season
| Napoli | Lazio | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | #10 · 15 pts | #1 · 29 pts |
| Last 5 (newest first) | DLWDL | DWWWW |
| Home W-D-L (goals) | 2-2-1 (9:6) | 4-1-0 (10:5) |
| Away W-D-L (goals) | 2-1-3 (9:8) | 5-1-0 (15:4) |
| Goals per game at home (for/against) | 1.80 / 1.20 | 2.00 / 1.00 |
| Goals per game away (for/against) | 1.50 / 1.33 | 2.50 / 0.67 |
| xG | n/a | n/a |
xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.60 home and 1.51 away goals per match (110 finished matches).
Model assumptions & limitations
Assumptions
- Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
- Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
- Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
- Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
- Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
- The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.
Limitations
- No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
- No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
- Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
- Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
- Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.