AI prediction · locked November 4, 2026 7:45 pm
Model pick 1–2
Result after 90 minutes: 2–1. The model tipped 1–2 and scored 0 points.
Most likely scores
Why
The model expects Venezia FC to score 1.30 goals: league home average 1.62 × Venezia FC home attack 0.69 × Udinese away defence 1.17.
It expects Udinese to score 1.88 goals: league away average 1.56 × Udinese away attack 1.05 × Venezia FC home defence 1.14.
Based on 5 home games for Venezia FC, 4 away games for Udinese and 100 finished matches in the competition.
Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).
Most likely outcome: Udinese (51%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.
Form & stats this competition season
| Venezia FC | Udinese | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | #19 · 6 pts | #20 · 5 pts |
| Last 5 (newest first) | WLLLW | LLDLL |
| Home W-D-L (goals) | 2-0-4 (5:11) | 0-1-5 (4:14) |
| Away W-D-L (goals) | 0-0-5 (3:10) | 1-1-3 (8:11) |
| Goals per game at home (for/against) | 0.83 / 1.83 | 0.67 / 2.33 |
| Goals per game away (for/against) | 0.60 / 2.00 | 1.60 / 2.20 |
| xG | n/a | n/a |
xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.60 home and 1.51 away goals per match (110 finished matches).
Model assumptions & limitations
Assumptions
- Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
- Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
- Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
- Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
- Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
- The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.
Limitations
- No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
- No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
- Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
- Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
- Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.