AI prediction · locked November 6, 2026 1:00 pm
Model pick 1–2
Result after 90 minutes: 0–2. The model tipped 1–2 and scored 1 point.
Most likely scores
Why
The model expects Elche to score 1.14 goals: league home average 1.71 × Elche home attack 0.73 × Real Betis away defence 0.91.
It expects Real Betis to score 1.78 goals: league away average 1.30 × Real Betis away attack 0.96 × Elche home defence 1.42.
Based on 5 home games for Elche, 5 away games for Real Betis and 109 finished matches in the competition.
Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).
Most likely outcome: Real Betis (52%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.
Form & stats this competition season
| Elche | Real Betis | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | #18 · 10 pts | #4 · 26 pts |
| Last 5 (newest first) | LLWDD | WWDLW |
| Home W-D-L (goals) | 0-1-5 (4:14) | 5-0-1 (12:8) |
| Away W-D-L (goals) | 2-3-1 (10:6) | 3-2-1 (8:7) |
| Goals per game at home (for/against) | 0.67 / 2.33 | 2.00 / 1.33 |
| Goals per game away (for/against) | 1.67 / 1.00 | 1.33 / 1.17 |
| xG | n/a | n/a |
xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.61 home and 1.28 away goals per match (119 finished matches).
Model assumptions & limitations
Assumptions
- Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
- Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
- Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
- Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
- Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
- The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.
Limitations
- No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
- No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
- Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
- Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
- Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.