AI prediction · locked November 6, 2026 5:30 pm
Model pick 1–0
Result after 90 minutes: 0–0. The model tipped 1–0 and scored 0 points.
Most likely scores
Why
The model expects Celta to score 1.49 goals: league home average 1.71 × Celta home attack 0.93 × Levante away defence 0.93.
It expects Levante to score 0.76 goals: league away average 1.30 × Levante away attack 0.66 × Celta home defence 0.87.
Based on 6 home games for Celta, 6 away games for Levante and 109 finished matches in the competition.
Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).
Most likely outcome: Celta (55%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.
Form & stats this competition season
| Celta | Levante | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | #11 · 13 pts | #17 · 11 pts |
| Last 5 (newest first) | DLDWD | DLLWD |
| Home W-D-L (goals) | 2-3-2 (9:6) | 2-1-2 (13:12) |
| Away W-D-L (goals) | 0-4-1 (1:4) | 0-4-3 (3:9) |
| Goals per game at home (for/against) | 1.29 / 0.86 | 2.60 / 2.40 |
| Goals per game away (for/against) | 0.20 / 0.80 | 0.43 / 1.29 |
| xG | n/a | n/a |
xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.61 home and 1.28 away goals per match (119 finished matches).
Model assumptions & limitations
Assumptions
- Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
- Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
- Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
- Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
- Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
- The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.
Limitations
- No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
- No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
- Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
- Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
- Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.