AI prediction · locked November 5, 2026 8:00 pm
Model pick 0–1
Result after 90 minutes: 0–3. The model tipped 0–1 and scored 1 point.
Most likely scores
Why
The model expects Valencia to score 0.87 goals: league home average 1.71 × Valencia home attack 0.61 × Real Madrid away defence 0.83.
It expects Real Madrid to score 1.95 goals: league away average 1.30 × Real Madrid away attack 1.22 × Valencia home defence 1.22.
Based on 6 home games for Valencia, 6 away games for Real Madrid and 109 finished matches in the competition.
Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).
Most likely outcome: Real Madrid (63%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.
Form & stats this competition season
| Valencia | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | #19 · 9 pts | #2 · 30 pts |
| Last 5 (newest first) | LWLDD | WWWWW |
| Home W-D-L (goals) | 0-2-5 (3:14) | 5-0-0 (17:3) |
| Away W-D-L (goals) | 2-1-2 (5:6) | 5-0-2 (14:7) |
| Goals per game at home (for/against) | 0.43 / 2.00 | 3.40 / 0.60 |
| Goals per game away (for/against) | 1.00 / 1.20 | 2.00 / 1.00 |
| xG | n/a | n/a |
xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.61 home and 1.28 away goals per match (119 finished matches).
Model assumptions & limitations
Assumptions
- Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
- Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
- Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
- Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
- Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
- The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.
Limitations
- No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
- No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
- Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
- Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
- Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.